MOSCOW, June 21 - RIA Novosti. Global warming will lead to major changes in the dynamics of population mortality in Europe, due to higher summer temperatures average life expectancy of Europeans will be reduced to three or four months, with peak mortality shift from winter to summer, the Spanish scientists write in a paper published in the journal Nature Communications .
Mortality rates at different times of the year is significantly different, including due to climatic factors - for example, abnormally high temperatures in summer cause many heart attacks, heat shock or other diseases with a fatal outcome. On the other hand, more people die in winter due to respiratory diseases, viral infections and hypothermia.
Scientists led by Joan Ballester (Joan Ballester) from the Catalan Institute of Climate Studies (Spain) have modeled the dynamics of mortality in the next 100 years, and traced the relationship between the mean effective air temperature, humidity, and mortality rates.
Climatologists estimate the impact of global warming and build its own model of change in mortality, comparing the simulation results with real data on mortality rates, which were collected during the abnormally hot summer in Europe in 2003.
As the climate model scientists have chosen one of the scenarios change, as articulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 - a scenario A1B.
It implies, in particular, the high level of globalization, rapid economic growth, the growth of world population to 9 billion people by 2050, as well as a balanced structure of energy sources. In this case, state climatologists, the average temperature in summer of 2003 in line with indicators that will be typical for the summer in Europe 50-100 years.
The researchers note that the "summer" mortality at an average increase from current 765 900-1000 deaths per million in 2080, while winter rates will be reduced from 900 to 860 deaths per million. Because of the reduction "winter" mortality and improving comfort of living in the northern areas will decrease mortality, projected climate scientists over the next 20-30 years.
On the other hand, the average "annual" number of deaths will rise gradually, starting from the middle of the XXI century, which ultimately lead to reduced life expectancy by three to four months in 2070-2100, respectively.
Scientists believe that the reduction in mortality in winter is not able to compensate for the increase in the number of deaths in summer because the adaptability of the body temperature to rise during the summer has its limits.
"Our study shows that seasonal changes in mortality rates change dramatically, the peak of population decline gradually switch to summer with a modern" winter mortality. " In addition, we found that the current climatic conditions are very close to those, the best in terms of minimum mortality, "- the scientists say.