The Mysterious phenomenon of a rise in prices
Price rally of the end of summer - an early autumn has made problems of the food market one of the most discussed and burning. To answer a question why the prices grow, it is hard, as all interested parties shift blame against each other.
Vlad Grinkevich, an economic observer of RIA Novosti news agency.
The hot summer Is abnormal has passed in is abnormal "hot" autumn, hot in the sense that, contrary to promises of the authorities not to admit an unreasonable rise in prices, products rise in price literally day by day. Price rally of the end of summer - an early autumn has made problems of the food market one of the most discussed and burning. To answer a question why the prices grow, not easier, than to solve a riddle of the Bermudas triangle as all interested parties shift blame against each other.
The End of summer – an early autumn traditionally is considered the deflation period – the new crop stimulates reduction of prices on fruit-and-vegetable production. But this year especial. According to Rosstata on the end of September inflation in the country has made 6,3 %, a rise in prices major factor as it is easy to guess, there were products. Groats – гречка and millet fastest rose in price, then there were eggs, sunflower-seed oil, dairy products. However, that who goes every day to shop, the average statistics to what, growth can be observed personally, and quite often this real growth appears considerably above virtual, statistical.
This growth together with forecasts appearing continually about sharp jump of the prices expected to New year or deficiency of products is generated in a society by panic moods.
Especially this feeling of an arising panic considerably in a province where the population will sweep away from shelves of shops гречку and sugar literally.
The Situation is warmed up by that fact that neither representatives of the state, nor experts can't distinctly answer, who is guilty in the circumstances. Officials assure: the state in a difficult situation (speech about a drought) has led exclusively competently, and blame for a rise in prices of mass-media and wholesalers-secondhand dealers supposedly the first create an agiotage, and the second, using this agiotage, unreasonably inflate the prices. Wholesalers nod on manufacturers who, at the expense of a rise in prices want to compensate losses from a drought. Thus manufacturers and wholesalers unanimously assure that because of annual growth of tariffs, the prices for the electric power and combustive-lubricating materials they work for a long time on the verge of profitability.
The Most interesting that each of opponents is in own way right. Really, in our food market it is too much secondhand dealers. In 2008 of the wholesale companies in the Russian food market was in three and a half time more than retail – a nonsense! As officials recognized, the majority of these companies were engaged at all in formation of commodity parties or granting of logistical capacities – that is in what the wholesaler should be engaged – and simply resold each other the goods which sometimes at all didn't leave a warehouse. Experts assure that for today the situation essentially hasn't changed.
But, certainly, not speculators one...
It is difficult to say that in the country there are no objective reasons for foodstuffs growth when it is lost about third of crop.
And if still it is possible to compensate grain losses for the account of the passing rests how to fill, say, losses of a potato or bean.
The effect of a drought However will strongly affect the consumer market and as long it will be felt, officials can't tell. For example, Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin in the end of last week has assumed that the effect from a drought «basically will be shown till the end of the year», and from the beginning 2011 it will gradually come to naught also the prices are stabilized. However earlier the chairman of Bank of Russia Sergey Ignatyev came out with the assumption that drought consequences will make itself felt up to autumn of 2011.
The Drought a drought, but dispersal of food inflation , certainly, was promoted also by the negative tendencies which were outlined in agrarian sector. At the height of power crisis time and again held up as an example peasants who, despite of all difficulties, continued to increase manufacture. Behind a shot there was that fact that at the heart of growth the investments made still during pre-crisis times, besides lay that new investments didn't become. And here result: input of capacities on meat manufacture in the first half of the year of 2010 in annual calculation was reduced almost to 38 %.
We Will add to it that not all economists and branch experts agree with the statement of officials that actions of the state at the height of a drought (and after it) so were competent. On the contrary, inept actions of the state as a regulator of relations between manufacturers, suppliers and retail could become one of factors of dispersal of the prices.
In particular constant threats of application of administrative levers of pricing operate on businessmen as a red rag on a bull – manufacturers, wholesalers and retail inflate the prices, is simple from fear that the state just about declares about next "frost".
But there is more to come, in the first half of the year 2010 Russia began to return itself the forgotten partially rank «reserve of the high prices» , fixed to our country couple of years back. Disturbing tendencies in the food market began to be traced long before that of how the considerable part of territory of the country has been amazed by an abnormal heat so, the rise in price гречки has begun in May-June of this year. And on the general rates of food inflation Russia following the results of the first quarter of this year three times advanced the European Union countries.
the Opinion of the author can not coincide with an edition position
The Source: http://rian.ru/analytics/2 0101004/282162522.html